USDA milk production report

Definition

The Milk Production report is USDA NASS’s monthly estimate of US milk supply. For each month it gives:

Milk cows: average number of cows on farms during the month. NASS counts all cows that have calved, including dry cows, and excludes heifers not yet fresh. Milk excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk per cow: lb per cow for the month (total milk ÷ milk cows).
Total production: million lb.
Change vs a year earlier for each of the three, in percent.

The monthly report covers the 24 major dairy states, which produced about 96% of US milk in 2025 (222.6 of 231.7 billion lb). The January, April, July and October issues add quarterly estimates for all states (the US total). The annual Milk Production, Disposition, and Income summary adds farm use, marketings and cash receipts. (NASS Milk Production, 2026 issues.)

Revisions

Under NASS’s revision policy, each report revises the previous month for the 24 monthly states, and the previous quarter for the quarterly states. Estimates are revised again each February using more administrative data, possibly a third time the following February, and once more after the five-year Census of Agriculture. Read both the new month and the revision: a large revision to last month can matter more than the new number.

Formula

Plain text:

milk per cow (lb) = total production (lb) / average milk cows
YoY change (%) = (this year's month − same month last year) / same month last year × 100
total YoY (%) ≈ cow-number YoY (%) + milk-per-cow YoY (%)

LaTeX:

\text{lb/cow} = \frac{P}{N}
\qquad
\Delta\%_{P} \approx \Delta\%_{N} + \Delta\%_{\text{lb/cow}}

where P is total production and N the average milk cow number. The additive form is an approximation valid for small percentage changes.

Leap years: February has 29 days in a leap year, so February total production and per-cow milk jump about 3.6% for that reason alone. Compare per-day figures, or adjust for days, when a leap February is involved.

How to pull it in DC305

DC305 doesn’t hold national supply data. Get it from USDA NASS: the monthly Milk Production report (PDF and text), or NASS Quick Stats for history by state.

DC305 can produce the herd’s own comparable numbers for benchmarking:

COUNT FOR LACT>0                    total cows (lactating + dry), NASS basis
SUM MILK FOR LACT>0 MILK>0          test-day lb per lactating cow per day

To compare with NASS lb per cow per month, use total shipped milk for the month (from milk checks) divided by average total cows including dry, not DC305 test-day milk per lactating cow. See cow count definitions.

Typical range

Herd context: US national totals, all breeds; date basis 2025 (NASS Milk Production, April 2026 issue).

Measure	US level
Milk cows, 2025 average	9.50 million head (9.61 million in Q1 2026)
Milk per cow, 2025	24,390 lb/cow/yr (about 2,030 lb/cow/month)
Total production, 2025	231.7 billion lb
YoY total change	usually within about ±2%; 2025–early 2026 ran higher, +2.4% to +4.6% in recent months

Per-cow output trends up about 1–2% a year over the long run; cow numbers move with margins, with a lag of several months.
Seasonal peak is in spring (March–May); low point in late summer and fall.

Common mistakes

Comparing NASS lb/cow with farm lb per milking cow. NASS divides by all cows including dry; farm figures are usually per lactating cow. Per lactating cow is higher by a factor of 1 / (1 − dry share), so about 15% higher at a 13% dry share. Use the herd’s actual dry share.
Ignoring the revision to the prior month.
Treating 24-state totals as the US total. They’re close but not the same.
Comparing February to February across a leap year without adjusting for days.
Reading a total change without splitting it into cow numbers vs per-cow yield; the two have different causes and different persistence.
Treating milk volume as solids supply. Component growth can outpace volume growth; the report counts pounds of milk.